23 March 2023
The last time a Republican presidential candidate won Nevada was in 2004, when incumbent President George W. Bush edged out Democratic challenger John Kerry with 50.5% of the vote compared Kerry’s 47.9%.
This is not to say that it is a historical rarity for a Republican to win Nevada. Bush also won the state in 2000, and Republican candidates took Nevada in the six presidential elections between 1968 and 1988, before Bill Clinton won the state in the 1992 and 1996 elections.
Between 1864 and 2020, Republicans won Nevada in 20 elections, Democrats in 19 elections, and the People’s Party in one election, according to the election-tracking website 270toWin.
A poll conducted earlier this year found that 42% of Nevada voters were “most likely to vote for” Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis versus 36% for President Joe Biden, while 18% were unsure. The poll also found that former President Donald Trump led Biden 42% to 40% in a hypothetical matchup, with 18% answering unsure.
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